Determination device through clustering analysis of position history data, method, and non-transitory computer readable storage medium

ABSTRACT

According to an embodiment a determination device through a clustering analysis of position history data incudes an estimation unit that, by conducting a clustering analysis on history data of pieces of geographical position information on Earth of a plurality of movable bodies that is obtained by a positioning device, based, on a horizontal position constituted of a latitude and a longitude and a lapse of time, acquires pieces of area information indicating a characteristic of geographical area in which there is a tendency for the movable bodies to be positioned, the history data being accumulated sequentially in a storage device with pieces of movable body identification information and pieces of timestamp information, and a determination unit that determines whether the movable body is present in a specified point in time and the geographical area, based on the pieces of area information acquired for one of the movable bodies.

CROSS-REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATIONS

The present application claims priority to and incorporates by referencethe entire contents of Japanese Patent Application No. 2016-030495 filedin Japan on Feb. 19, 2016.

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION

1. Field of the Invention

The present invention relates to a determination device through aclustering analysis of position history data, a method, and anon-transitory computer readable storage medium.

2. Description of the Related Art

Conventionally, delivery business of collecting packages from deliverysources and delivering the collected packages to specified deliverydestinations has been known. The delivery business has a problem interms of profitability because when the package is delivered to thespecified delivery destination and a user receiving the package isabsent, the package needs to be delivered again after a while. In orderto solve the problem, following technique has been proposed. That is, asmall base station is installed in a house, and when a previouslyregistered terminal device of a user is present in a communication areaof the small base station, it is determined that the user is present ata delivery destination and a package is delivered thereto.

Japanese Patent Application Laid-open No. 2012-252619.

With the above-mentioned conventional technique, it cannot however beconsidered that absence of the user is capable of being easilydetermined, resulting in a problem.

The above-mentioned conventional technique, for example, requires timeand effort for advance preparation, at the delivery destinationinvolving installation of dedicated equipment such as the small basestation in the house and previous registration of the terminal device ofthe user.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

It is an object of the present invention to at least partially solve theproblems in the conventional technology.

According to one aspect of an embodiment a determination device througha clustering analysis of position history data incudes an estimationunit that, by conducting a clustering analysis on history data of piecesof geographical position information on Earth of a plurality of movablebodies that is obtained by a positioning device, based on a horizontalposition constituted of a latitude and a longitude and a lapse of time,acquires pieces of area information indicating a characteristic ofgeographical area in which there is a tendency for the movable bodies tobe positioned, by controlling an electronic information processing unit,the history data being accumulated sequentially in a storage device withpieces of movable body identification information and pieces oftimestamp information. The determination device through a clusteringanalysis of position history data includes a determination unit thatdetermines whether the movable body is present in a specified point intime and the geographical area, based on the pieces of area informationacquired for one of the movable bodies, by controlling an electronicinformation processing unit.

The above and other objects, features, advantages and technical andindustrial significance of this invention will be better understood byreading the following detailed description of presently preferredembodiments of the invention, when considered in connection with theaccompanying drawings.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 is a diagram for explaining an example of action effects exertedby a determination system according to an embodiment;

FIG. 2 is a diagram for explaining an example of the functionalconfiguration of a determination server in the embodiment;

FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of pieces of informationthat are registered in a position history database in the embodiment;

FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of pieces of informationthat are registered in an estimation result database in the embodiment;

FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of pieces of informationthat are registered in a presence probability database in theembodiment;

FIG. 6 is a flowchart for explaining an example of flow of guideprocessing that the determination server executes in the embodiment;

FIG. 7 is a diagram for explaining an example of the functionalconfiguration of a delivery center server in the embodiment;

FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating an example of pieces of informationthat are registered in a delivery database in the embodiment;

FIG. 9 is a flowchart for explaining an example of flow of generationprocessing that the delivery center server executes in the embodiment;and

FIG. 10 is a flowchart for explaining an example of flow of transmissionprocessing that the delivers center server executes in the embodiment.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

Modes (hereinafter, referred to as “embodiments”) for carrying out adetermination device through a clustering analysis of position historydata, a method, and a non transitory computer readable storage mediumaccording to the present application will be described in detail belowwith reference to the drawings. It should be noted that the embodimentsdo not limit the determination device through a clustering analysis ofposition history data, the method, and the non-transitory computerreadable storage medium in the present application. The same referencenumerals denote the same sites and the same pieces of processing in thefollowing embodiments and overlapped description thereof is omitted.

The following describes an example of a determination system providing adelivery service of delivering packages to specified bases using anestimation result by, as processing executed by the determinationdevice, estimating bases of users U01 to U04 based on histories ofpositions of terminal devices 101 to 104 used by the users U01 to U04,respectively.

1. Outline of Determination System

First, concepts of estimation processing and determination processingthat a determination system 1 executes will be described with referenceto FIG. 1. FIG. 1 is a diagram for explaining an example of actioneffects exerted by the determination system in the embodiment. In theexample illustrated in FIG. 1, the determination system 1 includes adetermination server 10, a delivery center server 50, the terminaldevices 101 to 104, and a visitor terminal V01.

In the following description, the terminal devices 101 to 104 arecollectively referred tea as terminal devices 100 in cases. The outlineillustrated in FIG. 1 is merely an example and the determination system1 may include th desired number of terminal devices 100, the desirednumber of determination servers 10, the desired number of deliverycenter servers 50, and the desired number of visitor terminals V01.

Each terminal device 100 is a terminal device such as a mobile terminallike a smart phone, a tablet terminal, and a personal digital assistant(PDA), and a notebook-type personal computer (PC), and is capable ofcommunicating with any server through a network such as a mobilecommunication network, the Internet, and a wireless local area network(LAN). The terminal device 100 has a positioning function of specifyingthe position (hereinafter, referred as “current position”) of theterminal device 100 at a predetermined time interval using a positioningmeans such as a global positioning system (GPS).

The determination server 10 is an information processing device thatexecutes the estimation processing, the determination processing, anddecision processing, which will be described later, and is implementedby a server device, a cloud system, or the like. The determinationserver 10 is connected to the delivery center server 50 in acommunicable manner through a network N.

The delivery center server 50 is an information processing device thatexecutes various pieces of information processing for providing thedelivery service, and is implemented by a server device, a cloud system,or the like. The delivery center server 50 is connected to thedetermination server 10 and the visitor terminal V01 in a communicablemanner through the network N.

The visitor terminal V01 is a terminal device such as a mobile terminallike a smart phone, a tablet terminal, and a PDA, and a notebook-typePC, and is capable of communicating with the delivery center server 50through the network N such as a mobile communication network, theInternet, and a wireless local area network (LAN). The visitor terminal.V01, for example, displays various pieces of information about thedelivery service such as capabilities of visits to bases as deliverydestinations and a delivery route in accordance with instructions fromthe delivery center server 50.

The users U01 to U04 are, for example, users using the terminal devices101 to 104, respectively, and living in the same multiple dwellinghousing (e.g. apartment house) M10. To be more specific, the user U01using the terminal device 101 and the user U02 using the terminal device102 are the users living in a room (meaning a dwelling unit or a house,the same holds true hereinbelow) R21 in the multiple dwelling housingM10. The user U03 using the terminal device 103 is a user living in aroom Rll in the multiple dwelling housing M10 and the user U04 using theterminal device 104 is a user living in a room R12 in the multipledwelling housing M10. That is, the users U01 to U04 are the users basedin the rooms R11 to R21 located at substantially the same position.

As illustrated in (A) in FIG. 1, the user U01 is currently out whereasthe user U02 stays in the room R21. The user U02 can therefore receive apackage addressed to the user U01 or the user U02, that is, a packageaddressed to the room R21. Accordingly, the package can be delivered tothe room R21. As illustrated in (B) in FIG. 1, the user U04 is currentlyout and there is therefore no user who receives a package in the roomR12. Accordingly, a package addressed to the user U04, that is, apackage addressed to the room R12 cannot be delivered. When a visitorvisits the room R12, redelivery needs to be performed.

Advance preparation at the delivery destinations involving installationof pieces of dedicated equipment in the houses or previous registrationof the terminal devices of the users in order to reduce time and effortfor the redelivery requires time and effort. Furthermore, whether a userwho has not performed the advance preparation is at home cannotdetermined.

For example, even when the terminal device 101 is located in thevicinity of the multiple dwelling housing M10, pieces of informationabout whether the user U01 using the terminal device 101 is based in(lives in) the multiple dwelling housing M10 and about a room in whichthe user U01 lives in the multiple dwelling housing M10 are not known.In other words, even when the current position of each terminal device100 can be specified, whether a user receiving a package is present at adestination, that is, whether the package can be delivered cannot bedetermined in the case in which the terminal device 100 corresponding toa base as the destination of the package is unknown. Moreover, even whenthe user receiving the package is present in the base as the destinationof the package, whether the user is a real user based in the destinationcannot be checked. There is therefore a risk that the package isdelivered to a malicious third party.

In order to address the above-mentioned situations, the determinationsystem 1 determines whether the individual users U01 to U04 are at home,that is, whether the packages addressed to the individual bases can bedelivered without requiring the advance preparation by executing variouspieces of processing, which will be described below.

First, the terminal devices 100 position the current positions of theterminal devices 100 using the positioning means such as the GPS. Thedetermination server 10 collects pieces of position informationindicating the current positions from the terminal devices 100 of theindividual users U01 to U04 (step S1). The terminal devices 100 maytransmit the pieces of position information to the determination server10 with, for example, a function of a previously installed predeterminedapplication or the like.

The determination server 10 executes the estimation processing ofestimating bases such as houses and work places of the individual usersU01 to U04 by estimating correspondence between the terminal devices 100and the bases based on the pieces of position information collected fromthe terminal devices 100 (step S2). The determination server 10 executesthe determination processing of determining whether the users U01 to U04using the terminal devices 100 corresponding to the bases as visitdestinations are present in the bases based on the estimation result,executes specification processing of specifying time bands withprobabilities of presence of the individual users U01 to U04 in theestimated bases, in which the probabilities are higher than apredetermined threshold, and notifies the delivery center server 50 ofresults of the individual pieces of processing (step S3).

The delivery center server 50 executes generation processing ofgenerating capabilities of visits to the bases as the deliverydestinations (that is, capabilities of delivery of the packages) and adelivery route as route for delivering the packages to the bases basedon the notified pieces of information (step S4). Then, the deliverycenter server 50 transmits the generated capabilities of delivery anddelivery route to the visitor terminal V01 (step S5).

2. Estimation Processing and Determination Processing that DeterminationServer 10 Executes in the Embodiment

Hereinafter, examples of the functional configuration and action effectsof the determination server 10 that executes the above-mentionedestimation processing and determination processing will be describedwith reference to the drawings.

2-1. Example of Functional Configuration

FIG. 2 is a diagram for explaining the example of the functionalconfiguration of the determination server in the embodiment. Asillustrated in FIG. 2, the determination server 10 includes acommunication unit 20, a storage unit 30, and a controller 40. Thecommunication unit 20 is implemented by, for example, a networkinterface card (NIC). The communication unit 20 is connected to thenetwork N by wire or wirelessly and transmits and receives pieces ofinformation between the determination server 10 and the delivery centerserver 50 and the terminal device 100.

The storage unit 30 is implemented by, for example, a semiconductormemory element such as a random access memory (RAM) and a flash memoryor a storage device such as a hard disk and an optical disk. The storageunit 30 includes a position history database 31, an estimation resultdatabase 32, and a presence probability database 33.

Pieces of position history information indicating histories of positionsat which the terminal devices 100 have stayed are registered in theposition history database 31. To be more specific, the pieces ofposition information collected from the terminal devices 100 areregistered as the pieces of position history information in the positionhistory database 31.

FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of pieces of informationthat are registered in the position history database in the embodiment.In the example illustrated in FIG. 3, the pieces of position historyinformation having items of a “terminal identifier (ID)”, a “user ID”,“position information”, “collection time”, “terminal information”, and“communication device information” are registered in the positionhistory database 31. It should be noted that pieces of position historyinformation having a desired item other than the items illustrated inFIG. 3 may be registered in the position history database 31.

The “terminal ID” is an identifier indicating the terminal device 100that has acquired the corresponding position information using thepositioning function such as the GPS. The “user ID” is an identifierindicating the user using the terminal device 100 indicated by thecorresponding “terminal ID”. The “position information” is informationindicating the position of the terminal device 100, the position beingmeasured by the terminal device 100 indicated by the corresponding“terminal ID”. The “collection time” is the time at which thecorresponding “position information” has been measured or the time atwhich the corresponding “position information” has been collected fromthe terminal device 100.

The “terminal information” is information about the terminal device 100indicated by the corresponding “terminal ID”. The “terminal information”is, for example, a model name and a model number of the terminal device100, and an Internet protocol (IP) address and a media access control(MAC) address assigned to the terminal device 100. The “terminalinformation” is, for example, information indicating names and versionsof an operating system (OS), an application (for example, a disasterprevention prompt report application or a map application) that hascollected the corresponding “position information”, an application thathas transmitted the “position information” to the determination server10, and the like. That is, as the “terminal information”, anyinformation indicating characteristics of the terminal device 100indicated by the corresponding “terminal ID” can be employed.

The “communication device information” is information indicating acommunication device (for example, a wireless LAN master unit, alsoreferred to as a wireless router or the like) with which the terminaldevice 100 indicated by the corresponding “terminal ID” can communicateor a communication device used when the position information istransmitted to the determination server 10. The “communication deviceinformation” is, for example, information about characteristicscontaining specifications and a format of communication that aregenerated in communication between the terminal device 100 and thecommunication device. The terminal device 100 acquires the“communication device information” from the communication device or acollection unit 41 of the determination server 10 acquires the“communication device information” through the communication unit 20.The communication device information is, for example, a device name, amodel number, Internet protocol (IP) address, a port number, and aservice set identifier (SSID) of the communication device. As a morespecific example, the “communication device information” is variouspieces of information about an access point installed at a base, such asthe communication device with which the terminal device 100 indicated bythe corresponding “terminal ID” can communicate

In the example illustrated in FIG. 3, for example, the position historyinformation in which a terminal ID “ID101”, a user ID “U01”, positioninformation “position #1”, collection time “2015/01/01/21:00:00”,terminal information “terminal information #1”, and communication deviceinformation “communication device #1” correspond to one another isregistered in the position history database 31. This position historyinformation indicates, for example, that the user U01 indicated by theuser ID “U01” uses the terminal device 101 indicated by the terminal ID“IDIOT”. The position history information further indicates that theterminal device 101 has collected the position information “position #1”at the collection time “2015/01/01/21:00:00”. In addition, the positionhistory information indicates that the terminal information of theterminal device 101 is the “terminal information #1” and that thecommunication device information of the communication device installedat a position communicable with the terminal device 101 is thecommunication device information “communication device #1”. When theterminal device 101 transmits the position information and the like tothe determination server 10 through the communication device, thecommunication device information is the IP address and the like of thecommunication device that has transferred the position informationtransmitted from the terminal device 101 to the determination server 10.

Although the example in FIG. 3 illustrates conceptual values such as the“position #1”, the “terminal information #1”, and the “communicationdevice #1”, the embodiment is not limited thereto. In the positionhistory database 31, for example, values of the north latitude and theeast longitude, the latitude and the longitude, or the like measured bythe GPS are registered as the “position information”, the model name andthe model number of the terminal device 100, the name and the version ofthe OS, and the like are registered as the “terminal information”, andthe IP address of the communication device, the SSID that thecommunication device uses, and the like are registered as the“communication device information”. It should be noted that among theitems illustrated in FIG. 3, information of an item that thedetermination server 10 have failed to collect does not have to beregistered.

The estimation result by the estimation processing, which will bedescribed later, is registered in the estimation result database 32. Tobe more specific, pieces of estimation result information indicatingestimated correspondence between the terminal devices 100 and the basesare registered in the estimation result database 32. FIG. 4 is a diagramillustrating an example of pieces of information that are registered inthe estimation result database in the embodiment. In the exampleillustrated in FIG. 4, the pieces of estimation result informationhaving items of a “base ID”, “position info ion”, a “terminal ID”, a“user ID”, and a “room number” are registered in the estimation resultdatabase 32. It should be noted that pieces of estimation resultinformation having a desired item other than the items illustrated inFIG. 4 may be registered in the estimation result database 32.

The “base ID” is an identifier for identifying a place as a hub ofactivity of a user, that is, a place as a base. The base may be, forexample, not only a house in which the user lives but also apredetermined facility such as a work place, a temporary housing, and apark as long as it is a place that the user periodically visits. Thebase may be a predetermined spot that actually exists, such as areception desk of a predetermined work place and a guardhouse of abuilding, as long as the position thereof can be specified. That is, thebase can be any spot as long as a visitor can meet the user at the spotor the spot serves as a unit of a visit in a service involving visiting.

In the example illustrated in FIG. 4, the rooms in which the individualusers live are employed as an example of the bases. The “room number”illustrated in FIG. 4 is, for example, information indicating a numberof the room as the base of the user indicated by the corresponding “userID” in the facility located at a position indicated by the corresponding“position information”.

In the example illustrated in FIG. 4, for example, the estimation resultinformation in which a base ID “base #1”, position information “position#1”, terminal IDs “ID101, ID102”, user IDs “U01, U02”, and a room number“R21” correspond to one another is registered in the estimation resultdatabase 32 This estimation result information indicates that the baseindicated by the base ID “base #1” is a room indicated by the roomnumber “R21” among the rooms in the facility located at the positioninformation “position #1” and the users U01 and U02 using the terminaldevices 101 and 102 indicated by the terminal IDs “ID101, ID102” arebased in the room.

Pieces of presence probability information indicating presenceprobabilities specified by the specification processing, which will bedescribed later, are registered in the presence probability database 33.To be more specific, the pieces of presence probability informationindicating the probabilities of presence of the users in the bases foreach time band are registered in the presence probability database 33.For example, FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of pieces ofinformation that are registered in the presence probability database inthe embodiment. In the example illustrated in FIG. 5, the presenceprobability information in which the “base ID” and the probabilities ofthe presence of the users in each base for each time band correspond toeach other are registered in the presence probability database 33.

In the example illustrated in FIG. 5, for example, in the presenceprobability database 33, a probability “70%” of the presence of the userin the base indicated by the base ID “base #1” between “10:00 and 11:00”and a probability “80%” of the presence of the user in the base between“11:00 and 12:00” are registered. Furthermore, in the presenceprobability database 33, a probability “80%;” of the presence of theuser in the base indicated by the base ID “base #2” between “10:00 and11:00” and a probability “20%” of the presence of the user in the basebetween “11:00 and 12:00” are registered.

Description is continued with reference to FIG. 2 again. The controller40 is implemented by, for example, causing a central processing unit(CPU), a micro processing unit (MPU), an application specific integratedcircuit (ASIC), a field programmable gate array (FPGA), or the like toexecute various programs stored in the storage device in thedetermination server 10 using a storage region of the RAM or the like asa work region. In the example illustrated in FIG. 2, the controller 40includes the collection unit 41, an estimation unit 42, a determinationunit 43, a specifying unit 44, and an information provision unit 45.

A connection relation among the processors 41 to 45 included in thecontroller 40 is not limited to the connection relation illustrated inFIG. 2 and may be another connection relation. The individual processors41 to 45 implement and execute functions and actions (for example,FIG. 1) of the estimation processing and the determination processing,which will be described below, but these are functional units structuredfor description and may be unidentical to practical hardware componentsor software modules. That is, the determination server 10 may implementand execute the estimation processing and the determination processingby any functional unit as long as it can implement and execute thefunctions and actions of the estimation processing and the determinationprocessing, which will be described later.

2.2. Example of Action Effects in Guide Processing

Hereinafter, contents of guide processing that the individual processors41 to 45 execute and implement will be described with reference to aflowchart illustrated in FIG. 6. FIG. 6 is a flowchart for explaining anexample of flow of the guide processing that the determination serverexecutes in the embodiment.

First, the collection unit 41 collects the pieces of positioninformation from the respective terminal devices 101 to 104 (step S101).The terminal devices 100 acquire the pieces of position information at apredetermined time interval, for example. As will be seen in thefollowing description, the terminal devices 100 collect various piecesof information that can be indicators for estimating the bases inaddition to the pieces of position information. The terminal devices 100acquire, for example, the pieces of communication device information ofthe communication devices with which to urinal devices 100 communicateat the bases, such as the SSIDs of the wireless routers installed in thehouses. The terminal devices 100 acquire the user IDs of the users usingthe terminal devices 100 through, for example, user authentication in apredetermined web service or application. Then, the terminal devices 100transmit, to the determination server 10, the terminal IDs of theterminal devices 100, the user IDs of the users using the terminaldevices 100, the pieces of acquired position information, the date andtime at which the pieces of position information have been acquired, thepieces of acquired communication device information, and the pieces ofterminal information indicating the OSs, browsers, and the like of theterminal devices 100. As a result, the collection unit 41 stores thevarious pieces of acquired information as the pieces of position historyinformation in the position history database 31 (step S102).

The collection unit 41 may collect pieces of information other than thepieces of position information by any method. When the collection unit41 has acquired the pieces of position information from the terminaldevices 100, the collection unit 41, for example, may collect theterminal IDs and the user IDs of the users using the terminal devices100 from servers or the like providing mobile communication networkservices to the terminal devices 100 utilizing, as keys, pieces ofidentification information such as the IP addresses corresponding to theterminal devices 100 as transmission sources of the pieces of positioninformation by lending, address translation, or the like, and the MACaddresses that the terminal devices 100 use. The collection unit 41, forexample, may collect the user IDs of the users who log-in through theterminal devices 100 from reception servers receiving the log-ins of theusers for providing predetermined web services or the like.

The collection unit 41 may collect the pieces of terminal informationand the pieces of communication device information from various piecesof information that can be acquired when the collection unit 4 receivesthe pieces of position information from the terminal devices 100. Thecollection unit 41 may acquire, as the pieces of terminal information,for example, the names and versions a of the assigned OSs when theterminal devices 100 transmit the pieces of information. The collectionunit 41 can acquire the IP addresses and the port numbers of thecommunication devices as the IP addresses and the port numbers of thetransmission sources of the pieces of position information when thepieces of position information are transmitted through the communicationdevices installed at the bases. The collection unit 41 may collect theIP addresses and the port numbers of the transmission sources of thepieces of position information as the pieces of communication deviceinformation.

Thereafter, the estimation unit 42 specifies places that the individualusers have visited from the pieces of position history informationregistered in the position history database 31 (step S103). To be morespecific, the estimation unit 42 specifies all the places at which theindividual terminal devices 100 have stayed by extracting all pairs ofthe terminal IDs and the pieces of position information that areregistered in the position history database 31 in the correspondingmanner. The estimation unit 42 estimates the correspondence between therespective terminal devices 100 and the bases based on the amounts(hereinafter, referred to as stay amounts) for which the terminaldevices 100 have stayed at the respective places (step S104). To be morespecific, the estimation unit 42 specifies the places as the bases ofthe users using the terminal devices 100 based on the stay amounts ofthe terminal devices 100 and causes the specified places to correspondto the terminal devices 100 that the users use. Then, the estimationunit 42 registers the estimation result in the estimation resultdatabase 32 (step S105).

The estimation unit 42, for example, extracts all of the pieces ofposition history information containing the terminal ID “ID101”indicating the terminal device 101 with reference to the positionhistory database 31. Then, the estimation unit 42 specifies the placesthat the user using the terminal device 101 has visited based on thepieces of position information contained in the pieces of extractedposition history information. The estimation unit 42 specifies, forexample, the addresses, facility names, and the like of the places thatthe user has visited. Subsequently, the estimation unit 42 calculatesthe stay amounts which the terminal device 100 and the user have stayedat the specified places based on the collection time contained in thepieces of extracted position history information. The estimation unit 42calculates, for the individual specified places, for example, at leastone of the numbers of times that the terminal device 100 has beenpresent, the lengths of periods of time during which the terminal device100 has stayed, and the time bands in which the terminal device 100 hasstayed. That is, the estimation unit 42 specifies the places that theusers using terminal devices 100 have visited, and calculates as thestay amounts, at least one of the numbers of times that the users havevisited the specified places, the stay periods of time therein, and thestay time bands therein.

Then, the estimation unit 42 estimates, based on the stay amounts, thebases corresponding to the terminal devices 100, that is, the bases asthe houses in which the users using the terminal devices 100 live, thebases as companies in which the users work, or the like. That theestimation unit 42 estimates correspondence between the individual basesand the users based on what-is-called heat maps of the places that theusers visit.

For example, when the user visits a fixed place during the day, theplace or an area including the place is estimated to be the work placeof the user. For example, when the user stays at a fixed place for along period of time during the night, the place is estimated to be thehouse of the user. When the user is a full-time homemaker or the like, aplace at which the user stays for the longest period of time isestimated to be the house of the user whereas when the user is aclerical worker or the like, a place at which the user stays for thelongest period of time is estimated to be the work place of the user.

In the above-mentioned manner, a certain pattern is estimated to begenerated when the user visits the base thereof such as the work placeand the house. For this reason, the estimation unit 42 can calculate thestay amounts of the users (that is, the stay amounts of the terminaldevices 100) based on the pieces of position history information toestimate who uses which base, that is, correspondence relations betweenthe bases and the users.

The estimation unit 42 estimates the bases of the users based on thenumbers of times that respective terminal devices 100 have stayed andthe temporal amounts thereof. The estimation unit 42 can thereforeestimate, the bases of the users, areas that the users visit many timesor areas in which the users stay for a long period of time even when thepieces of position information acquired from the terminal devices 100have some errors and the positions indicated by the pieces of positioninformation are slightly different at every acquisition. Accordingly,the estimation unit 42 can estimate the bases of the users even when thepieces of position information acquired from the terminal devices 100have some errors.

As illustrated in FIG. 1, the multiple dwelling housing M10 has therooms R11 to R21 in which the users U01 to U04 live. In such a case, thepieces of position information that are collected from the terminaldevices 101 to 104 are similar to one another. Accordingly, when thebases of tie users U01 to U04 are estimated from the pieces of positioninformation, the multiple dwelling housing M10 can be estimated as thebase but the rooms as the bases of the individual users U01 to U04cannot be estimated in some cases.

In order to address the above-mentioned situation, the estimation unit42 estimates the bases of the respective users U01 to U304 by estimatingthe correspondence between the terminal devices 101 to 104 and the basesbased on the pieces of terminal device information about the respectiveterminal devices 100 and the pieces of communication device informationabout the communication devices communicating with the respectiveterminal devices 100, in addition to the pieces of position information.

In, for example, multiple dwelling housings such as apartments andcondominiums, it is estimated that the communication devices forconnection to a network such as the Internet are installed in therespective rooms and different SSIDs are assigned to the respectivecommunication devices. Also in buildings and the like with a pluralityof commercial facilities, the communication devices capable of beingidentified by the SSIDs that are different among the commercialfacilities are installed in many cases.

It is considered, for example, that the wireless router installed in theroom R21 and the wireless router installed in the room R11 use differentSSIDs. When the correspondence between the SSIDS used by thecommunication device a the rooms in which the communication devices areinstalled can be specified, the pieces of information about the SSIDsused by the communication devices with which the terminal devices 100can communicate can be indicators for specifying the rooms as the basesof the users in the multiple dwelling housing M10. When the roomcorresponding to at least one of the terminal devices 100 using the sameSSID can be specified based on information by user registration in acertain service, or the like, all the terminal devices 100 using thesame SSID can correspond to the room.

Global IP addresses that are different from one another when seen fromthe network N side are lent to the communication devices in some cases.In such a case, pairs of the IP addresses and port numbers lent to thecommunication devices are lent to the terminal devices 100 capable ofcommunicating with the communication devices when seen from the networkN side. The pieces of information about the IP addresses lent to thecommunication devices with which the terminal devices 100 cancommunicate can be indicators indicating the rooms in which the usersare based in the multiple dwelling housing M10.

In the multiple dwelling housing M10 or the like, one IP address is lentto a communication device as a master unit that is connected to all ofthe communication devices installed in the respective rooms (that is,one global IP address is lent to the entire multiple dwelling housingM10) and the communication devices installed in the respective rooms canbe specified with the port numbers from the network N side in somecases. In such a case, when the terminal devices 100 transmit the piecesof position information to the determination server 10 through thecommunication devices installed in the rooms, the determination server10 can specify the communication devices through which the terminaldevices 100 have transmitted the pieces of position information based onthe IP address and the port numbers of the communication devices as thetransmission sources. The pieces of information of the IP address andthe port numbers lent to the communication devices with which theterminal devices 100 can communicate can be indicators indicating therooms in which the users are based in the multiple dwelling housing M10.

The user makes selection, contract, and the like of an Internet serviceprovider (ISP) (hereinafter, referred to as a “provider”) for each ofthe rooms (houses) including the case in which the communication deviceis installed in each of the rooms of the multiple dwelling housing inadvance. The various pieces of information about the communicationdevices, such as the SSIDs, the IP addresses, and the port numbers thatthe communication devices use and the providers that are used forconnection of the communication devices to the network N can beindicators for specifying the rooms in which the users of the terminaldevices 100 capable of communicating with the communication devices arebased by reception of provision of pieces of information about contractaddresses containing the room numbers in the multiple dwelling housingfrom systems of the providers.

Users working in the same company receive the terminal devices 100provided by the company in some cases. In such a case, the terminaldevices 100 provided by the company are of a common model in many cases.It is estimated that the terminal devices 100 provided by differentcompanies are of different models. For example, when a plurality ofcompanies are settled in the same building, the model types of theterminal devices 100 that the users use can therefore be indicators forestimating companies where the users work, that is, companies as thebases of the users.

Furthermore, the versions and the model numbers of the OSs, thebrowsers, and the applications that the terminal devices 100 execute aredifferent among the models of the terminal devices 100 in so e cases.The model numbers of the terminal devices 100 and the versions and themodel numbers of the OSs, the browsers, the applications, and the likethat the terminal devices 100 execute can therefore be indicators forspecifying users based in the same work place. The users based in thesame home or the same company use the mobile communication networkservice that is provided by the same carrier with a high probability.

The collection unit 41 collects, as the pieces of communication deviceinformation, not only the SSIDs of the communication devices but alsothe IP addresses and the port numbers of the communication devices, thepiece information of the providers, and the like. The collection unit 41collects, as the pieces of terminal device information, the versions andthe model numbers of the OSs, the browsers, the applications, and thelike, and the carriers of the respective terminal devices 100. Theestimation unit 42 estimates the bases corresponding to the terminaldevices 100 among the bases located at the same place based onsimilarity, difference, and the like in the pieces of terminal deviceinformation and the pieces of communication device information inaddition to the position histories.

The estimation unit 42 generates, for the individual bases, the piecesof estimation result information in which the base IDs, the pieces ofposition information indicating the places of the bases indicated by thebase IDs, the terminal IDs of the terminal devices 100 that the usersbased in the places indicated by the pieces of position information use,and the user IDs of the users based in the places indicated by thepieces of position information correspond to one another. Then, theestimation unit 42 registers the pieces of generated estimation resultinformation in the estimation result database 32.

For example, when the pieces of position information acquired from theterminal devices 101 to 104 indicate the position of the multipledwelling housing M10 during the night, the estimation unit 42 estimatesthat the users U01 to U04 of the terminal devices 101 to 104 are basedin the multiple dwelling housing M10. When the pieces of communicationdevice information acquired from the terminal devices 101 and 102 arethe same and the pieces of communication device information acquiredfrom the terminal devices 103 and 104 are different from each other, theestimation unit 42 estimates that the users U01 and U02 of the terminaldevices 101 and 102 are based in a common room and the users U03 and U04of the terminal devices 103 and 104 are based in different rooms.

The IP addresses, the providers, and the like of the communicationdevices enable the rooms in which the communication devices areinstalled to be specified based on pieces of customer information thatthe providers have. For example, the values of the IP addresses lent tothe respective communication devices, the pieces of customer informationof customers using the respective communication devices, and the likeare registered in customer information management servers with which theproviders manage the pieces of customer information. The pieces ofcustomer information contain the addresses and the user IDs of the usersusing the communication devices, the addresses containing the roomnumbers of the rooms in which the communication devices are installed,and the like.

The estimation unit 42 acquires the pieces of information that aremanaged by the customer information management servers of the providerscontained in the pieces of communication device information, andspecifies the rooms in which the communication devices capable ofcommunicating with the terminal devices 100 are installed based on thepieces of communication device information received from the terminaldevices 100. The collection unit 41 collects, for example, the IPaddresses lent to the communication devices with which the terminaldevices 100 can communicate together with the pieces of positioninformation from the terminal devices 100. In another example, when theterminal devices 100 transmit the pieces of position information throughthe communication devices, the collection unit 41 collects the IPaddresses and the port numbers indicating the transmission sources ofthe pieces of position information as the IP addresses and the portnumbers of the communication devices with which the terminal devices 100can communicate.

The estimation unit 42 notifies the customer information managementservers of the IP addresses and the port numbers collected by thecollection unit 41. In such a case, the customer information managementservers specify the communication devices to which the notified IPaddresses and port numbers are lent and specify the users using thespecified communication devices and the rooms in which the specifiedcommunication devices are installed from the pieces of customerinformation. Then, the customer information management servers transmitthe user IDS indicating the specified users and the room numbersindicating the specified rooms to the detect determination server 10. Insuch a case, the estimation unit 42 registers the received user IDs androom numbers in the estimation result database 32 in a correspondingmanner.

The addresses of the users that are contained in the pieces of customerinformation can be considered to be the addresses of the bases of theusers. The estimation unit 42 may therefore estimate the bases of theusers using the terminal devices 100 from the pieces of customerinformation that the customer information management servers managebased on the user IDs received from the terminal devices 100. Theestimation unit 42, for example, notifies the customer informationmanagement servers of the user IDs received from the terminal devices100. In such a case, the customer information management servers specifythe pieces of customer information of the users indicated by thenotified user IDs, the pieces of information of the communicationdevices that the users use, and the like, and transmit the pieces ofspecified customer information and the pieces of specified informationof the communication devices to the determination server 10. In such acase, the estimation unit 42 specifies the pieces of positioninformation of the places as the bases of the users using the terminaldevices 100, the room numbers thereof, and the like from the addressesof the users that are contained in the pieces of received customerinformation, and registers the pieces of specified position informationand the specified room numbers in the estimation result database 32 soas to correspond to the user IDs.

For example, when the determination server 10 collects the communicationdevice information containing the SSID of the communication device towhich the terminal device 101 can be connected and the terminalinformation from the terminal device 101 that the user U01 uses, andestimates the base of the user U01 to be the room R21 based on thecollected communication device information and the collected terminalinformation, it is considered that the determination server 10 estimatesthe correspondence between the SSID of the communication device and theroom R21 as the base in which the communication device is installed.When the bases corresponding to the SSIDs contained in the pieces ofcollected communication device information have been already estimated,the estimation unit 42 may regard the estimated bases as the bases ofthe terminal devices 100 as the collection sources of the pieces ofcommunication device information.

As a result, the estimation unit 42 can estimate the bases of the usersU01 and U02 of the terminal devices 101 and 102 to be the room R21 inthe multiple dwelling housing M10. The estimation unit 42 can estimatethe base of the user U03 of the terminal device 103 to be the room R11in the multiple dwelling housing M10 and the base of the user U04 of theterminal device 104 to be the room R12 in the multiple dwelling housingM10.

It should be noted that the estimation unit 42 may execute theprocessing of estimating the bases of the respective users using anymethod other than the above-mentioned processing. As described above,the pieces of information that are used for specifying the rooms inwhich the communication devices are installed, such as the pieces ofcommunication device information containing the IP addresses, the portnumbers, and the like lent to the respective communication devices, aredifferent depending on routes through which the terminal devices 100collect the pieces of communication device information from thecommunication devices, routes through which the determination server 10receives the pieces of position information from the terminal devices100, the connection configurations of the communication devices in themultiple dwelling housing M10, and the like.

The collection unit 41 may collect, as the pieces of communicationinformation, not only the pieces of communication device informationsuch as the SSIDs and the IP addresses of the communication devices butalso various pieces of information that are used in communication withthe terminal devices 100, such as pieces of desired acquirableinformation about routes through which the terminal devices 100 accessthe network N. In such a case, the pieces of communication deviceinformation are collected as a Dart of the pieces of communicationinformation. The estimation unit 42 may estimate the bases in which thecommunication devices with which the terminal devices 100 cancommunicate are installed based on the pieces of collected communicationinformation. Alternatively, the estimation unit 42 may select the piecesof information that are used for estimating the bases among the piecesof communication information based on the pieces of informationindicating the routes through which the terminal devices 100 access thenetwork N and estimate the bases based on the pieces of selectedinformation.

The estimation unit 42 may estimate the bases of the users from thepieces of terminal information. For example, the pieces of companyinformation such as the addresses of the companies as the provisionsources of the terminal devices 100, the models of the terminal devices100, types of pieces of software that are executed, and the like areregistered in a corresponding manner in the management servers withwhich the carriers of the terminal devices 100 provided to the users bythe companies or the like manage the pieces of customer information. Theestimation unit 42 transmits the pieces of position information receivedfrom the terminal devices 100 and the pieces of terminal informationreceived from the terminal devices 100 as queries to the managementservers. The management servers transmit the pieces of companyinformation corresponding to the pieces of position information and thepieces of terminal information received as the queries to thedetermination server 10, in such a case, the estimation unit 42 mayregister the pieces of received company information as the pieces ofinformation indicating the bases of the users in the estimation resultdatabase 32

Subsequently, the determination unit 43 determines whether the users ofthe terminal devices 100 corresponding to the bases as visitdestinations are present in the bases based on the estimation result bythe estimation unit 42 (step S106). To be more specific, thedetermination unit 43 determines whether any of the users using theterminal devices 100 corresponding to each base as the visitdestination, that is, each base specified as the delivery destination ofthe package is present in the base. When any of the users is determinedto be present in the base, the determination unit 43 transmits thedetermination result to the delivery center server 50.

The determination unit 43, for example, receives the pieces ofinformation of the bases as the delivery destinations from the deliverycenter server 50 or the like. In such a case, the determination unit 43extracts the terminal IDs corresponding to the base IDs of the bases asthe delivery destinations with reference to the estimation resultdatabase 32. The determination unit 43 searches the position historydatabase 31 for the latest pieces of position information that have beenacquired within a predetermined period of time among the pieces ofposition information received from the terminal devices 100 indicated bythe extracted terminal IDs.

When the pieces of position information provided as a search result areidentical to the positions of the bases contained in the estimationresult database 32, the determination unit 43 determines that the usersare present in the bases. On the other hand, when the pieces of positioninformation cannot be provided Las the search result or when the piecesof position information provided as the search result are not identicalto the positions of the bases contained in the estimation resultdatabase 32, the determination unit 43 determines that the users are notpresent in the bases. Then, the determination unit 43 transmits thedetermination result to the delivery center server 50 through theinformation provision unit 45.

In the example illustrated in FIG. 1, for example, the terminal device101 of the user U01 and the terminal device 102 of the user U02correspond to the room R21 as the base and the terminal device 104 ofthe user U04 corresponds to the room R12 as the base. In the exampleillustrated in FIG. 1, absence of the user U01 can be specified becausethe position information that is acquired from the terminal device 101is not identical to the position information of the multiple dwellinghousing M10. In the example illustrated in FIG. 1, presence of the userU02 in the base can be specified because the position formation that isacquired from the terminal device 102 is identical to the positioninformation of the multiple dwelling housing M10 (or is located in thepredetermined area).

In the case in which a package addressed to the user U01 is delivered,when the user U02 based in the room 21 is present in the room R21 evenif the user U01 is absent therein, the package can be delivered byvisiting the room R21. The determination unit 43 can therefore determinethat a visitor can visit the room R21 as illustrated in FIG. 1(C) wheneither of the user U01 or U02 (for example, the user U02) based in theroom R21 is present. In the example illustrated in FIG. 1, the user U04based in the room R12 is absent in the room R12 as the base. Asillustrated in FIG. 1(D), the determination unit 43 therefore determinesthat the visitor cannot visit the room R12.

In the above-mentioned manner, when the terminal devices correspond toone base as the delivery destination and any of the terminal devices islocated at the same place as the base, it can be estimated that any ofthe users based in the place is present in the base. When at least oneuser is present in each base, the package can be delivered thereto. Thedetermination unit 43 therefore determines that the package can bedelivered when any of the users corresponding to each base as thedelivery destination is present in the base.

Description is continued with reference to FIG. 6 again. The specifyingunit 44 calculates the probabilities of presence of any of the userscorresponding to respective bases for the each time band (step S107).Then, the specifying unit 44 specifies time bands with the probabilitiesof the presence of any of the users of the terminal devices 100 in thebases, in which the probabilities are higher than the predeterminedthreshold based on the stay histories of the terminal devices 100 in thecorresponding bases. Thereafter, the specifying unit 44 registers thecalculation result in the presence probability database 33 (step S108).

The specifying unit 44, for example, extracts he correspondence betweenthe bases and the users from the estimation result database 32. Thespecifying unit 44 calculates probabilities of stay of the userscorresponding to the extracted bases in the bases for each time bandwith reference to the position history database 31. For example, thespecifying unit 44 calculates the probability of presence of the userU01 or the user U02 in the room R 1 between “10:00 and 11:00”. Then, thespecifying unit 44 registers the probabilities calculated for each timeband as the pieces of presence probability information in the presenceprobability database 33.

Subsequently, the information provision unit 45 transmits, to thedelivery center server 50, the determination result by the determinationunit 43 together with the pieces of presence probability informationspecified by the specifying unit 44 (step S109). To be more specific,the information provision unit 45 transmits, to the delivery centerserver 50, together with the estimation result by the estimation unit42, the pieces of presence probability information registered in thepresence probability database 33.

The individual processors 41 to 45 can independently execute the piecesof processing at steps S101 to S108 in FIG. 6 in a divided manner atdesired granularities. The collection unit 41 may execute the pieces ofprocessing at steps S101 and S102, for example, at a predetermined timeinterval. The estimation unit 42 may execute the pieces of processing atsteps S103 to S105, that is, the estimation processing at apredetermined time interval. The determination unit 43 may execute theprocessing at step S106, that is, the determination processing at apredetermined time interval or may execute it upon reception of arequest from the delivery center server 50. The specifying unit 44 mayexecute the pieces of processing at steps S107 and S108, that is, thespecifying processing at a predetermined time interval.

3. Pieces of Processing that Delivery Center Server 50 Executes inEmbodiment

Hereinafter, examples of the functional configuration and action effectsof the delivery center server 50 that executes, together with theabove-mentioned generation processing, transmission processing oftransmitting delivery information indicating delivery to the terminaldevices 100 of the users as the delivery destinations of packages willbe described with reference to the drawings.

3-1. Example of Functional Configuration

FIG. 7 is a diagram for explaining an example of the functionalconfiguration of the delivery center server in the embodiment. Asillustrated in FIG. 7, the delivery center server 50 includes acommunication unit 60, a storage unit 70, and a controller 80. Thecommunication unit 60 is implemented by, for example, an NIC, isconnected to the network N by wire or wirelessly, and transmits andreceives pieces of information between the delivery center server 50 andthe determination server 10, terminal device 100, and the visitorterminal V01.

The storage unit 70 is implemented by, for example, a semiconductormemory element such as a RAM and a flash memory or a storage device suchas a hard disk and an optical disk. The storage unit 70 includes apresence probability database 71 and a delivery database 72. Descriptionof the presence probability database 71 is omitted, since the pieces ofinformation registered in the presence probability database 71 areregarded as the same as those in the presence probability database 33 ofthe determination server 10.

Pieces of information indicating e bases as the delivery destinations ofpackages, that is, the bases as the visit destinations in the deliveryservice are registered in the delivery database 72. FIG. 8 is a diagramillustrating an example of the pieces of information that are registeredin the delivery database in the embodiment. As illustrated in FIG. 8,the pieces of delivery information having items of a “deliverer ID”, a“package ID”, and a “delivery destination ID” are registered in thedelivery database 72.

The “deliverer ID” is information for identifying a deliverer whodelivers the package to the base and is, for example, an identifier ofthe visitor terminal V01 that the deliverer uses. The “package ID” is anidentifier of the package that is delivered to the base. The “deliverydestination ID” is a base ID of the base as the delivery destination,that is, the base as the visit destination.

In FIG. 8, for example, the delivery information in which a deliverer ID“V01”, a package ID “package #1”, and a delivery destination ID “base#1” correspond to one another is registered. This delivery informationindicates, for example, that the deliverer indicated by the deliverer ID“V01”, that is, the deliverer using the visitor terminal V01 delivers apackage indicated by the package ID “package #1” to a base indicated bythe delivery destination ID “base #1”. Although the example in FIG. 8illustrates conceptual values such as the “package #1”, the embodimentis not limited thereto. It should be noted that pieces of deliveryinformation having a desired item other than the pieces of informationillustrated in FIG. 8 may be registered in the delivery database 72.

Description is continued with reference to FIG. 7 again. The controller80 is implemented by, for example, causing a CPU, an MPU, an ASIC, anFPGA, or the like to execute various programs stored in the storagedevice in the delivery center server 50 using a storage region of theRAM or the like as a work region, in the example illustrated in FIG. 7,the controller 80 includes an information acquisition unit 81, agenerator 82, a transmitter 83, and a receiver 84.

A connection relation among the individual processors 81 to 84 includedin the controller 80 is not limited to the connection relationillustrated in FIG. 7 and may be another connection relation. Theindividual processors 81 to 84 implement and execute functions andactions (for example, FIG. 1) of the generation processing and thetransmission processing, which will be described below, but these arefunctional units structured for description and may be unidentical topractical hardware components or software modules. That is, the deliverycenter server 50 may implement and execute the generation processing andthe transmission processing, which will be described below, by anyfunctional unit as long as it can implement and execute the functionsand actions of the generation processing and the transmissionprocessing.

3-2. Example of Action Effects in Generation Processing

Hereinafter, contents of the generation processing that the informationacquisition unit 81 and the generator 82 execute and implement will bedescribed with reference to a flowchart illustrated in FIG. 9. FIG. 9 isa flowchart for explaining an example of flow of the generationprocessing that the delivery center server in the embodiment executes.

First, the information acquisition unit 81 acquires the determinationresult and the pieces of presence probability information from thedetermination server 10 (step S201). Then, the information acquisitionunit 81 registers the pieces of acquired presence probabilityinformation in the presence probability database 71 (step S202).

Subsequently, the generator 82 generates a delivery route indicating theorder of visiting a plurality of bases as delivery destinations ofpackages based on the probabilities of the presence of the users in thebases as the delivery destinations of the packages (step S203). Thegenerator 82, for example, specifies the bases corresponding to thevisitor terminal V01, that is, the bases that the deliverer using thevisitor terminal V01 visits with reference to the delivery database 72.Then, the generator 82 specifies the probabilities of the presence ofthe users in the bases specified from the delivery database 72 for eachtime band with reference to the presence probability database 71.

The generator 82 generates the delivery route for visiting the basesspecified from the delivery database 72 based on the specified timebands. The generator 82, for example, estimates periods of time that areto be taken for transportation between the bases based on positionrelations between the bases, and generates the delivery route so as tomake the probabilities of the presence of the users when the deliverervisits the respective bases be higher than the predetermined thresholdin consideration with the estimated periods of time for transportation.Then, the generator 82 transmits the generated delivery route togetherwith the determination result to the visitor terminal V01 (step S204)and displays the delivery route on the visitor terminal V01.

The generator 82 may, for example, display pieces of informationindicating time bands in which the deliverer visit the individual basestogether with the delivery route on the visitor terminal V01 and displaythe probabilities of the presence of the users in the bases for eachtime band. That is, the generator 82 may display any information on thevisitor terminal V01 as long as the information can be provided asresults of the estimation processing, the determination processing, andthe specifying processing by the determination server 10.

The delivery center server 50 may notify the visitor terminal V01 ofwhether the users are present in the bases as the visit destinations,that is, whether the deliverer can visit the bases as the visitdestinations even without generating the delivery route by transmittingthe determination result by the determination server 10 as it is to thevisitor terminal V01. The delivery center server 50 may transmit,together with the probabilities of the presence of the users in theindividual bases, the pieces of information indicating the usersreceiving the packages are present or not in the individual bases, thatis, the pieces of information for capabilities of visiting theindividual bases, and the delivery center server 50 may display theinformation.

3-3. Example of Action Effects in Transmission Processing

Time and effort for redelivery are expected to be further reducible bytransmitting visit notification to the users based in the places as thedelivery destinations and the users present in the bases before thepackages are delivered. The transmitter 83 and the receiver 84 executethe transmission processing illustrated in FIG. 10, thereby furtherreducing the time and effort for redelivery. Hereinafter, contents ofthe transmission processing that the transmitter 83 and the receiver 84execute and implement will be described with reference to a flowchartillustrated in FIG. 10. FIG. 10 is a flowchart for explaining an exampleof flow of the transmission processing that the delivery center serverexecutes in the embodiment.

For example, the transmitter 83 determines whether the current timing isa transmission timing of the visit notification (step S301). When thetransmitter 83 determines that the current timing is not thetransmission timing of the visit notification (No at step S301), thetransmitter 83 stands by until the transmission timing of the visitnotification. Then, when the transmitter 83 determines that the currenttiming is the transmission timing of the visit notification (Yes at stepS301), the transmitter 83 transmits the visit notification (step S302).

For example, the transmitter 83 specifies the current position of thevisitor terminal V01 and determines that the current timing is thetransmission timing of the visit notification when the specifiedposition makes close to a predetermined area from each base as thedelivery destination. Then, the transmitter 83 transmits the visitinformation indicating that the visitor visits the base to the terminaldevice 100 of the user corresponding to the base.

For example, when the deliverer using the visitor terminal V01 visitsthe room R21, the transmitter 83 determines whether the current positionof the visitor terminal V01 is within the predetermined area from theroom R21. When the transmitter 83 determines that the current positionof the visitor terminal V01 is within the predetermined area from theroom R21, the transmitter 83 specifies the user U02 of the users U01 andU02 based in the room R21 to be present in the room R21 based on thedetermination result acquired from the deter nation server 10 andtransmits the visit notification to the terminal device 102 that thespecified user U02 uses. The transmitter 83 may transmit the visitnotification to both of the terminal devices 101 and 102 that the usersU01 and U02 based in the room R21 use, respectively.

The transmitter 83 may calculate a period of time until the visitorreaches each base based on a distance between the current place of thevisitor terminal V01 and the base. When the calculated period of timebecomes equal to or shorter than a predetermined period of time, thetransmitter 83 may transmit the visit notification to the usercorresponding to the base For example, when the period of time that isto be taken for transportation from the current place of the visitorterminal V01 to the room R21 becomes equal to or shorter than 10minutes, the transmitter 83 may transmit the visit notificationcontaining delivery of the package or a visit within 10 minutes to theterminal device 102.

For example, when the position indicated by the position information ofthe terminal device 102 corresponds to the position of the room R21 asthe base as the delivery destination, the transmitter 83 may transmitthe visit information to the terminal device 100 that the user uses. Tobe specific, the transmitter 83 may transmit the visit information tothe terminal devices 100 based on the pieces of position information ofthe terminal devices 100 that the users corresponding to the bases asthe delivery destinations use.

For example, even in the case in which the user U02 is not present inthe room R21, when the user U02 cleans the outside of the room R21, goesout to the neighborhood, and so on, it is also considered thattransmission of the visit notification enables the user U02 to receivethe package. Furthermore, the pieces of position information measured bythe terminal devices 100 have errors in some cases. In considerationwith the errors, the transmitter 83 may transmit the visit notificationwhen the current place of either of the terminal device 101 or 102 islocated in the vicinity of the multiple dwelling housing M10 even in thecase in which the current places of the terminal devices 101 and 102that the users U01 and U02 use are away from the multiple dwellinghousing M10. For example, when the current place of the terminal device102 is located in an area within 5 minutes by walk from the multipledwelling housing M10, the transmitter 83 may transmit the visitnotification to the terminal device 102.

The receiver 84 determines whether it receives pieces of responseinformation from the terminal devices 100 of the users based in theplaces as the delivery destinations (S303). When the receiver 84 doesnot receive the pieces of response information (No at step S303), theprocessing is finished. On the other hand, when the receiver 84 receivesthe pieces of response information (Yes at step S303), the receiver 84notifies the visitor terminal V01 of the pieces of response information(step S304) and the processing is finished.

For example, when the terminal device 102 receives the visitnotification from the transmitter 83, the terminal device 102 displaysthe information indicating the visit by the deliverer, and receivesinput of capability of the visit or a desirable time band for a revisit,that is, a time band in which the deliverer can visit. Then, theterminal device 102 transmits, to the delivery center server 50, thereceived input of the capability of the visit or the time band in whichthe deliverer can visit as the response information. In such a case, thereceiver 84 transmits contents of the response information received fromthe terminal device 102 to the visitor terminal V01.

The delivery center server 50 may regenerate new route information basedon the pieces of response information received by the receiver 84. Forexample, when the receiver 84 has received the response informationindicating incapability of the visit or the time band in which thedeliverer can visit from the terminal device 102 of the user U02, thegenerator 82 may regenerate route information causing the deliverer tovisit the room R21 in the time band in which the deliverer can visitthat is indicated by the response information and transmit theregenerated route information to the visitor terminal V01. As a result,the receiver 84 can prevent delivery failure that the deliverer visitsthe base regardless of the absence of the user and time and effort forthe redelivery.

4. Modifications

The determination system 1 in the above-mentioned embodiment may beimplemented in various different modes other than the above-mentionedembodiment. The following describes other embodiments of theabove-mentioned determination system 1.

4-1. Specifications of Reception Facility

In recent years, package reception facilities such as lockers and postsare installed such that packages can be delivered even when users areabsent in delivery destinations. When such reception facilities areinstalled, the packages can be delivered even in the case of absence ofthe users receiving the packages in the delivery destinations.

There are upper limits in the sizes and the numbers of packages capableof being received by the reception facilities due to the sizes of thelockers, the sizes of the post box slots, the number of lockers, and thelike. The determination system 1 may decide capabilities of visits tothe bases as the visit destinations based on, together with thedetermination result by the determination processing, the pieces ofinformation about the package reception facilities at the bases as thevisit destinations. The delivery center server 50, for example,previously stores therein presence and absence of the receptionfacilities corresponding to the respective bases as the visitdestinations and the pieces of information about the receptionfacilities, such as the size, the numbers, the weights, and the like ofthe packages capable of being received by the respective receptionfacilities.

For example, when the user 304 is determined to be absent in the roomR12 as the visit destination as a determination result of thedetermination processing, the delivery center server 50 determineswhether the reception facility corresponding to the room R12 is present.When the reception facility corresponding to the room R12 is present,the delivery center server 50 may transmit, to the visitor terminal V01,an instruction to put the package addressed to the room R12 in thereception facility.

When the size of the package to be delivered is larger than the upperlimit of the package capable of being received by the receptionfacility, the delivery center server 50 may transmit notificationindicating that the deliverer cannot visit to the visitor terminal V01When the number of packages capable of being received by the receptionfacility can be specified in real time, the delivery center server 50may determine whether the reception facility can receive a new packageand transmit notification to the visitor terminal V01 indicating whetherthe deliverer can visit based on the determination result.

4-2. Provision Mode of Determination System

In the above description, results of the estimation processing and thedetermination processing by the determination server 10 are provided tothe delivery service of delivering the packages to the specified bases,as an example. The embodiment is however not limited thereto and theresults of the above-mentioned estimation processing and determinationprocessing can be provided to various types of services supposingpresence of a user in a visit destination as long as a base of the useris estimated.

The results of the estimation processing and the determinationprocessing executed by the determination system 1 can be used in, forexample, various types of services involving a visit by a person while auser is present in a base, such as delivery of postal matters for whichreception destinations are specified like registered mails, businessactivities, sales, interviews, inspection of various facilities,administrative services involving visits for various businesses, and avisiting care service.

4-3. Change of Base

In the above description, the determination server 10 estimates thecorrespondence between the bases and the users U01 to U04. The bases ofthe users U01 to U04 however vary among the time bands in some cases.For example, the bases of the users are companies during the day whereasthe bases thereof are the houses during the night in some cases. Forexample, sole proprietors and the like have no base during the daywhereas the bases thereof are companies during the evening and night inother cases. In consideration with these cases, the determination server10 may estimate the bases of the users for each ti time band based onthe time bands for which the pieces of position information areacquired.

The determination server 10, for example, estimates the work place orthe like of the user U04 as the base of the user U04 in time bandsduring the day and estimates the room R12 as the base of the user U04 intime bands during the night. The determination server 10 may determinethat no user based in the room R12 is present during the day. Thedelivery center server 50 may specify the base of the user U04 in a timeband in which the deliverer visits and specify the specified base as thevisit destination. The delivery center server 50 may determine that inthe time bands during the day, the room R12 is not the base of the userU04 and that packages addressed to the room R12 cannot be delivered.

The delivery center server 50 may change the babes as the deliverydestinations in accordance with types of packages. For example, when thepackage is an office supply, the delivery center server 50 may deliverthe package to the place that is estimated to be the base during theday.

4-4. Usage of Results of Pieces of Processing

In the above-mentioned embodiment, the determination server 10determines whether the users are present in the corresponding bases andthe delivery center server 50 determines that packages can be deliveredwhen the users are determined to be present in the corresponding bases.The embodiment is however not limited thereto.

The determination system 1 may provide various types of services by, forexample, using absence of the users in the corresponding bases. As aspecific example, the determination result by the determination system 1may be used for, for example, an application of interrupting electricalsystems in the corresponding bases for inspection when the users aredetermined to be absent in the corresponding bases. The determinationresult may be used for, for example, an application of intensivelyperforming patrols by police officers, municipalities, and the like intime bands with low probabilities of the presence of the users in thecorresponding bases.

In the above-mentioned example, the determination system 1 estimates thecorrespondence between the users U01 to U04 and the bases based on thepieces of position history information of the terminal devices 100 thatthe users U01 to U04 use. The embodiment is however not limited thereto.The determination system 1 may estimate, for example, correspondencebetween a movable information processing device h as a robot and a basebased on the position history information of the robot. An estimationresult and a determination result of the base of the robot can be usedfor, for example, indicators of determination whether the robot hasreturned to a charging place or a maintenance position, whether therobot is not stolen, and the like.

In the above-mentioned example, the determination system 1 determinesthat the package can be delivered when either of the user U01 or U02based in the room R21 is present. The embodiment is however not limitedthereto. For example, the determination system 1 may determine whether apredetermined user among users corresponding to a facility as a visitdestination is present and determine that the deliverer can visit whenthe predetermined user is determined to be present.

For example, the determination system 1 specifies a user who is engagedin reception among users based in a company as a visit destination basedon pieces of previously registered information and the like anddetermines whether the specified user is present. Then, thedetermination system 1 may determine that the deliverer can visit whenthe specified user is determined to be present. Execution of thisprocessing enables the determination system 1 to deliver a package to apredetermined user at reception or the like even when an addressed useris absent in the base.

4-5. Specification of User

The determination server 10 may specify users using the terminal devices100 by any method. For example, the determination s 10 may receiveadvance registration indicating that the user using the terminal device101 is the user U01, and, for example, may acquire information about theuser U01 from the carrier of the terminal device 101. The determinationserver 10 may acquire information that the user U01 uses for log-in,registration authentication information that the user U01 has registeredin advance, or the like from an auction site or the like when the userU01 logs in the auction site or the like using the terminal device 101.The determination server 10 may acquire these pieces of information froma server device managing various pieces of information or may acquirethese pieces of information from the terminal device 101.

The determination server 10, for example, may specify the users usingthe terminal devices 100 based on the pieces of identificationinformation from the terminal devices 100. For example, the terminaldevices 100 may store therein pieces of registration authenticationinformation and the like input by the users when the users log in theauction site or the like, and transmit the pieces of stored registrationauthentication information together with the pieces of positioninformation to the determination server 10 to notify the determinationserver 10 of the users using the terminal devices 100. That thedetermination server 10 may collect the terminal IDs, the user IDs, thepieces of terminal information, and the pieces of communication deviceinformation that are registered as the pieces of position historyinformation by any method.

The determination server 10 is not required to specify thecorrespondence between all of the users and the terminal devices 100.For example, when the users present in the visit destinations may bedifferent from recipients themselves of packages as in the packagedelivery service and the like, the determination server 10 may dowithout specifying the correspondence between the users and the terminaldevices 100 and may specify only the correspondence between some usersand the terminal devices 100. That is, the determination server 10 maydetermine whether the deliverer can visit the respective bases based onthe presence or absence of the terminal devices 100 when only thecorrespondence between the terminal devices 100 and the bases of theusers using the terminal devices 100, that is, only the correspondencebetween the terminal devices 100 and the bases can be estimated. Withthe processing, for example, the determination server 10 may do withoutspecifying or registering the “user ID” in the estimation resultdatabase 32 illustrated in FIG. 4.

4-6. SSID

In the above description, the determination server 10 uses the pieces ofposition information that the terminal devices 100 acquire using thepositioning means such as the GPS as the pieces of position historyinformation. The embodiment is however not limited thereto. Thedetermination server 10 may specify the positions of the terminaldevices 100 using, for example, the pieces of communication deviceinformation such as the SSIDs. For example, the determination server 10stores therein the SSIDs, the IP addresses, the MAC addresses, the portnumbers, and the like set to the communication devices so as tocorrespond to the positions at which the communication devices areinstalled. When the determination server 10 receives the pieces ofcommunication device information from the terminal devices 100, thedetermination server 10 may specify the positions corresponding to thepieces of communication device information and use the specifiedpositions as the positions of the terminal devices 100.

4-7. Visit Notification

In the above description, the delivery center server 50 transmits thevisit notification to the users corresponding to the bases as the visitdestinations. The delivery center server 50 may transmit the visitnotification to only users registered in advance. For example, thedelivery center server 50 may transmit the visit notification to onlythe terminal device 102 of the user U02 when only the user U02 of theusers U01 and U02 has performed registration in advance.

4-8. Determination Result

In the above description, the determination system 1 determines whetherthe users are present in the bases in real time based on the estimationresult and calculates the probabilities of the presence of the users inthe bases. It is sufficient that the determination system 1 onlydetermines whether the users are present in the bases in real time basedon the estimation result or only calculates the probabilities of thepresence of the users in the bases. The delivery center server 50 neednot notify the visitor terminal V01 of all of the probabilities of thepresence of the users in the bases for each time band. The deliverycenter server 50 may notify the visitor terminal V01 of, for example,only time bands with the probabilities of the presence of the users inthe bases, in which the probabilities are higher than the predeterminedthreshold. The delivery center server 50 may specify the time bands withthe probabilities of the presence of the users in the bases, in whichthe probabilities are higher than the predetermined threshold for all ofthe bases as the visit destinations and generate the delivery routebased on the specified time bands.

4-9. Other Embodiments

The above-mentioned embodiment is merely an example and the presentinvention encompasses the following exemplifications and otherembodiments. The functional configurations, the data structures, theorders and contents of the pieces of processing illustrated in theflowcharts, and the like in the present application are merely examples,and presence and absence of the components, arrangement manners thereof,the order and specific contents of the pieces of processing that theyexecute, and the like can be appropriately changed. Instead of theconfiguration which the determination server 10 and the delivery centerserver 50 implement the above-mentioned various pieces of processing asin the above-mentioned embodiment, the pieces of processing can beimplemented as devices, methods, and programs in terminals whichapplications or the like of smart phones implement. Furthermore, oneserver device, one cloud system, or the like may implement the functionsand the functional configurations that the determination server 10 andthe delivery center server 50 execute.

The configuration in which the individual processors 41 to 45configuring the determination server 10 are implemented by independentdevices is also employed commonly, and the configuration in which theindividual processors 81 to 84 configuring the delivery center server 50are implemented by independent devices is also employed commonly. In thesame manner, the configuration of the present invention can be flexiblychanged as follows. That is, for example, the pieces of processingdescribed in the above-mentioned embodiment are implemented by callingan external platform or the like using an application program interface(API) or network computing (what-is-called cloud or the like).Furthermore, the individual elements according to the present inventionare not limited to be implemented by operation controllers of computersand may be implemented by other information processing mechanisms suchas physical electronic circuits.

5. Effects

As described above, the determination server 10 estimates thecorrespondence between the terminal devices 100 and the bases based onthe pieces of position history information as histories of the pieces ofposition information indicating the positions of the terminal devices100. Furthermore, the determination server 10 determines whether theusers of the terminal devices 100 corresponding to the bases as thevisit destinations are present in the bases based on the estimationresult.

Thus, the determination server 10 can link the bases and the users toeach other even when the correspondence between the terminal devices 100or the users using the terminal devices 100 and the bases of the usersare not registered in advance. As a result, the determination server 10can easily determine whether the users are present in the bases as thevisit destinations without advance registration. In addition, thedetermination server 10 prevents the delivery failure and reduces thenumber of times of revisit in various types of visit services, therebyimproving profitability. The determination server 10 can set any placeas the base as long as the base can be made to be linked with the user.This enables visit services such as the delivery service to be providedto, for example, users with no fixed address.

The determination server 10 estimates the bases corresponding to theterminal devices 100 based on the stay amounts of the terminal devices100 at the respective positions indicated by the pieces of positionhistory information. The determination server 10 estimates the basescorresponding to the terminal devices 100 based on, for example, atleast one of the numbers of times that the terminal devices 100 havestayed, the lengths of the periods of time during which the terminaldevices 100 have stayed and the time bands in which the terminal devices100 have stayed as the stay amounts of the terminal devices 100.

The determination server 10 can therefore specify the places in whichthe users of the terminal devices 100 are really based. Thedetermination server 10 can, for example, increase reliability that theplaces are the bases of the users as the periods of time during whichthe users have stayed are longer. When these pieces of processing areexecuted, the users who have stayed at the visit destinations for a longperiod of time, that is, the users really based in the visitdestinations can be estimated. As a result, the determination server 10,for example, can prevent occurrence of the case in which a package isdelivered to a user who pretends to be based in a visit destinationwhile stealing into the visit destination, waiting at an entrance of thevisit destination, and so on although the user is not based in the visitdestination.

The determination server 10 estimates the bases corresponding to theterminal devices 100 from the bases located at the same place based onthe pieces of terminal device information about the terminal devices 100in addition to the pieces of position history information Thedetermination server 10 estimates the bases corresponding to theterminal devices 100 from the bases located at the same place based onthe pieces of communication device information about the communicationdevices communicating with the terminal devices 100 at the bases inaddition to the pieces of position history information. Thedetermination server 10 can therefore estimate the correspondencebetween the oases located at the same place such as the rooms R11 to R21in the multiple dwelling housing M10, and the individual usersappropriately.

The determination server 10 determines whether any of the users usingthe terminal devices 100 corresponding to each base as the visitdestination is present in the base When the determination server 10determines that any of the users is present, it determines that the useris present in the base. With this determination, even when the addresseduser himself (herself) is not present, the determination server 10 candetermine whether the package can be delivered to the family or the likeof the user.

The determination server 10 determines whether the users of the terminaldevices 100 corresponding to the bases are present in the basesspecified as e delivery destinations of the packages The determinationserver 10 can reduce the number of times of delivery failure and revisitin the delivery service based on the determination result.

The determination server 10 specifies the time bands with theprobabilities of the presence of the users of the terminal devices 100in the bases, in which the probabilities are higher than thepredetermined threshold based on the stay histories of the terminaldevices 100 the corresponding bases. The delivery center server 50generates the route information indicating the route for visiting theindividual bases based on the time bands specified for the bases as thevisit destinations. The delivery center server 50 can thereforeimplement the delivery service efficiently based on the estimation

The determination server 10 calculates the probabilities of the presenceof the users in the bases as the visit destinations for each time bandand displays the calculated probabilities on the visitor terminal V01that the visitor uses. The determination server 10 can therefore provideindicators to the visitor for determining whether the visitor visits thebases.

The delivery center server 50 transmits the visit information indicatinga visit by the visitor to the bases to the users corresponding to thebases. To be specific, the delivery center server 50 transmits the visitinformation to the terminal devices 100 corresponding to the basesspecified as the visit destinations. For example, when the visitor makesclose to the predetermined area from the bases, the delivery centerserver 50 transmits the visit information to the users corresponding tothe bases. Alternatively, the delivery center server 50 transmits thevisit information to the users corresponding to the bases when theperiod of time until the visitor reaches the bases become equal to orshorter than the predetermined ;period of time.

When the visit information is transmitted, the users in the vicinity ofthe bases can be notified of visits by the visitor to urge the users toreturn to the bases. The delivery center server 50 can therefore reducethe number of times of delivery failure and revisit.

The delivery center server 50 receives the capabilities of the visits orthe pieces of response information indicating the time bands in whichthe visitor can visit from the users to which the visit information hasbeen transmitted. The delivery center server 50 can therefore reduce thenumber of times of delivery failure and revisit.

The delivery center server 50 transmits the visit information to theterminal devices 100 based on the pieces of position information of theterminal devices 100 that the users corresponding to the bases use. Forexample, when the positions indicated by the pieces of positioninformation of the terminal devices 100 correspond to the positions ofthe bases as the visit destinations, the delivery center server 50transmits the visit information to the terminal devices 100. Thedelivery center server 50 can therefore urge the users in the vicinityof the bases to return to the bases, thereby reducing the number oftimes of delivery failure and revisit.

The determination system 1 decides the capabilities of visits to thebases as the delivery destinations based on the determination result andthe pieces of information about the reception facilities for packagesthat are delivered to the bases as the visit destinations. In thismanner, the determination system 1 decides the capabilities of thevisits to the visit destinations based on the pieces of informationabout the reception facilities of the packages addressed to the bases,such as the lockers and the posts, thereby reducing the number of timesof delivery failure and revisit.

Although some embodiments of tie present application have been describedin detail with reference to the drawings, these are examples and thepresent invention can be implemented in modes described in thedisclosure of the invention and in other modes with variousmodifications or improvements based on the knowledge of those skilled inthe art.

Furthermore, the above-mentioned “sections, modules, and units” can beread as “means”, “circuits” or the like. For example, a determinationunit can be read as a determination means or a determination circuit.

The embodiment above can be applied not only to a determination device,a determination method, and a non-transitory computer readable storagemedium but also to a determination device through a clustering analysisof position history data. The determination device through a clusteringanalysis of position history data incudes an estimation unit(corresponding to estimation unit 42) that, by conducting a clusteringanalysis on history data of pieces of geographical position informationon Earth of a plurality of movable bodies that is obtained by apositioning device, based on a horizontal position constituted of alatitude and a longitude and a lapse of time, acquires pieces of areainformation indicating a characteristic of geographical area in whichthere is a tendency for the movable bodies to be positioned, bycontrolling an electronic information processing unit, the history databeing accumulated sequentially in a storage device with pieces ofmovable body identification information and pieces of timestampinformation. The determination device through a clustering analysis ofposition history data includes a determination unit (corresponding todetermination unit 43) that determines whether the movable body ispresent in a specified point in time and the geographical area, based onthe pieces of area information acquired for one of the movable bodies,by controlling an electronic information processing unit.

The determination device through a clustering analysis of positionhistory data can be applied not only to the field of delivery but alsoto other fields such as an animal management and traffic control ofaircraft and spacecraft. “A determination device comprising: anestimation unit that estimates correspondence between a terminal deviceand a base from history of pieces of position information indicatingpositions of the terminal device; and a determination unit thatdetermines whether a user of the terminal device corresponding to thebase as a visit destination is present in the base based on anestimation result by the estimation unit” can be performed alone withoutrequiring a configuration “a determination device through a clusteringanalysis of position history data comprising: an estimation unit that,by conducting a clustering analysis on history data of pieces ofgeographical position information on Earth of a plurality of movablebodies that is obtained by a positioning device, based on a horizontalposition constituted of a latitude and a longitude and a lapse of time,acquires pieces of area information indicating a characteristic ofgeographical area in which there is a tendency for the movable bodies tobe positioned, by controlling an electronic information processing unit,the history data being accumulated sequentially in a storage device withpieces of movable body identification information and pieces oftimestamp information; and a determination unit that determines whetherthe movable body is present in a specified point in time and thegeographical area, based on the pieces of area information acquired forone of the movable bodies, by controlling an electronic informationprocessing unit”.

According to an aspect of the embodiment, absence of a user can beeasily determined.

Although the invention has been described with respect to specificembodiments for a complete and clear disclosure, the appended claims arenot to be thus limited but are to be construed as embodying allmodifications and alternative constructions that may occur to oneskilled in the art that fairly fall within the basic teaching herein setforth.

What is claimed is:
 1. A determination device through a clusteringanalysis of position history data comprising: an estimation unit that,by conducting a clustering analysis on history data of pieces ofgeographical position information on Earth of a plurality of movablebodies that is obtained by a positioning device, based on a horizontalposition constituted of a latitude and a longitude and a lapse of time,acquires pieces of area information indicating a characteristic ofgeographical area in which there is a tendency for the movable bodies tobe positioned, by controlling an electronic information processing unit,the history data being accumulated sequentially in a storage device withpieces of movable body identification information and pieces oftimestamp information; and a determination unit that determines whetherthe movable body is present in a specified point in time and thegeographical area, based on the pieces of area information acquired forone of the movable bodies, by controlling an electronic informationprocessing unit, wherein the estimation unit and the determination unitare implemented by one or more processors.
 2. The determination deviceaccording to claim 1, wherein the one or more processors controlmovement of at least one of the movable bodies based on a determinationresult by the determination unit with reference to at least one of adirection in which the movable body comes closer to another movable bodyand a direction in which the movable body comes away from the othermovable body.
 3. The determination device according to claim 1, whereinthe estimation unit estimates correspondence between a terminal deviceand a base from history of pieces of position information indicatingpositions of the terminal device; and the determination unit determineswhether a user of the terminal device corresponding to the base as avisit destination is present in the base based on an estimation resultby the estimation unit.
 4. The determination device according to claim3, wherein the estimation unit estimates the base corresponding to theterminal device based on amounts for which the terminal device hasstayed at the respective positions indicated by the history of thepieces of position information.
 5. The determination device according toclaim 4, wherein the estimation unit estimates the base corresponding tothe terminal device based on at least one of numbers of times that theterminal device has stayed, lengths of periods of time during which theterminal device has stayed, and time bands in which the terminal devicehas stayed as the amounts for which the terminal device has stayed. 6.The determination device according to claim 3, wherein the estimationunit estimates the base corresponding to the terminal device from aplurality of bases located at the same place based on information aboutthe terminal device in addition to the history of the pieces of positioninformation.
 7. The determination device according to claim 3, whereinthe estimation unit estimates the base corresponding to the terminaldevice from a plurality of bases located at the same place based oninformation about a communication device communicating with the terminaldevice at the base in addition to the history of the pieces of positioninformation.
 8. The determination device according to claim 3, whereinthe determination unit determines whether any of a plurality of usersusing terminal devices corresponding to the base as the visitdestination is present and determines that the user is present in thebase when it is determined that any of the users is present.
 9. Thedetermination device according to claim 3, wherein the determinationunit determines whether the user of the terminal device corresponding tothe base specified as a delivery destination of a package is present inthe base.
 10. The determination device according to claim 3, furthercomprising a specifying unit that specifies a time band with aprobability of presence of the user of the terminal device in thecorresponding base that is higher than a predetermined threshold basedon a history that the terminal device has stayed in the base.
 11. Thedetermination device according to claim 10, further comprising agenerator that generates route information indicating a route forvisiting a plurality of bases as visit destinations based on time bandsspecified by the specifying unit for the bases.
 12. The determinationdevice according to claim 10, wherein the specifying unit calculatesprobabilities of the presence of the user in the base as the visitdestination for respective time bands and displays the calculatedprobabilities on a visitor terminal that a visitor uses.
 13. Thedetermination device ice according to claim 3, further comprising atransmitter that transmits visit information indicating a visit of apredetermined visitor to the base to the user corresponding to the base.14. The determination device according to according to claim 13, whereinthe transmitter transmits the visit information to the usercorresponding to the base when the visitor comes close to apredetermined area of the base.
 15. The determination device accordingto claim 13, wherein the transmitter transmits the visit information tothe user corresponding to the base when a period of time until thevisitor reaches the base becomes equal to or shorter than apredetermined period of time.
 16. The determination device according toclaim 13, further comprising a receiver that receives responseinformation indicating capability of the visit or a time band in whichthe visitor is capable of visiting from the user to which thetransmitter has transmitted the visit information.
 17. The determinationdevice according to claim 13, wherein the transmitter transmits thevisit information based on the position information of the terminaldevice that the user corresponding to the base uses to the terminaldevice.
 18. The determination device according to claim 17, wherein thetransmitter transmits the visit information to the user when a positionindicated by the position information corresponds to a position of thebase as the visit destination.
 19. The determination device according toclaim 13, wherein the transmitter transmits the visit information to theterminal device corresponding to the base specified as the visitdestination.
 20. The determination device according to claim 3, furthercomprising a decision unit that decides capability of a visit to thebase as the visit destination based on a determination result by thedetermination unit and information about a reception facility of apackage to be delivered to the base as the visit destination.